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     Issue: November / December 2004

COVER STORY - Year-end Special

Things are looking good for 2005

TMCs are reporting huge opportunities in Asia-Pacific for 2005. China, Japan and Australia are but just a few of the hot growth spots. Challenges, however, remain for them.

REGIONAL
-Carlson Wagonlit Travel president Asia-Pacific & Latin America, Mr Geoffrey T Marshall
The value of ticketed sales in our own businesses (wholly-owned or JVs) in Asia-Pacific - Singapore, Thailand, Hong Kong, Australia, Japan, China, India and Indonesia - this year will be about US$1.1 billion.
India, Australia and Japan have seen the biggest growth for us. China is growing well. We started there in January 2003. We are now in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou and we should see sales of US$70 million in China this year.

About 70 per cent of our business in the region is with multinational companies.

For 2005 we are forecasting continued fast growth in Australia. We also see good growth in Singapore and Hong Kong, the reason being that many MNCs are ramping up their operations in these markets.

We're also expecting to see further growth in Japan. That's where we forecast out greatest growth in volume terms. Japanese companies, many of which own their own travel agency, are beginning to spin off these travel subsidiaries so they can refocus on their core activity. This provides excellent opportunities for growth and because of our unique strengths there - we have a joint venture with JTB - we have a significant edge over the competition.

We forecast further strong growth in China as well, simply because the market is so massive. That's where we will see the greatest growth in percentage terms.

In fact, growth prospects are good all round in Asia-Pacific. The region is on a roll. Europe has stalled; the US economy is uncertain. So our customers are ramping up their operations in Asia-Pacific and corporate travel will piggyback on this.

We also believe that network airline ticket prices will rise and that will boost our sales.

We expect good growth also because we have expanded our sales and marketing personnel by about 30 per cent on average throughout the region.

-TQ3 Travel Solutions senior vice-president Asia & Middle East,Mr Bicky Carlra
The majority of Asian countries seem to be showing very buoyant economic performance and are upbeat for 2005. China and India are looking extremely promising, showing immense economic growth. This will mean more national and multinational corporations requiring travel and travel expense management solutions.

In addition, the corporate travel industry is showing very positive trends, with Japan on an upward swing alongside Singapore, Hong Kong and Korea. We envision these to be major forces of opportunity and growth besides Australia and New Zealand in the Pacific.

TQ3 Travel Solutions is looking to step up its regional activities in 2005 to further consolidate our position as a leading global TMC. We plan to continue our programme of strategic investment within Asia-Pacific, building upon the substantial investments that defined our activities in 2004.

Aside from external factors which affect the whole of the corporate travel community, such as the rising price of oil, channel distribution - where content and the ways to access it is becoming fragmented - and obviously security, all indications point towards 2005 being a very positive year for Singapore.

Also further investments in Asia are looking to have a major impact, as it would mean more spend on corporate travel. And with companies adopting global procurement trends, we will see improved travel governance, better policies, processes, use of technology, which in turn will help suppliers know which areas to invest in, so as to optimise profits.

Also further investments in Asia are looking to have a major impact, as it would mean more spend on corporate travel. And with companies adopting global procurement trends, we will see improved travel governance, better policies, processes, use of technology, which in turn will help suppliers know which areas to invest in, so as to optimise profits.

AUSTRALIA
-Flight Centre, FCm Travel Solutions* managing director, Mr Graham Turner
We will continue to grow the business as we have done over the last few years. We anticipate 10 to 20 per cent growth this year.

Corporate travel is generally not as competitive as leisure and offers good profit opportunities.

We are particularly excited about Asia. We own or have joint venture operations in Hong Kong and China. In the rest of Asia we will be licensing suitable players in the market. Europe is the other area for licensing. In Australia and New Zealand, we already have a dominant business.

India and China will see good growth for the foreseeable future and from our point of view it will be both inbound and outbound corporate travel. Domestic travel is generally unprofitable but necessary to give service to clients.

*Flight Centre has renamed its existing mainstream corporate travel as FCm and will be growing the business under this name via both wholly-owned and franchised/licensed operators in countries where it does not own operations.

HONGKONG
-Swire Travel Hong Kong general manager, destinations and events management, Mr Edmund Tsang
Corporate travel remains optimistic for next year because China continues to open up. Benefits from Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (CEPA) between Hong Kong and China will generate global travel to China for networking, banking and even financial deals. Some of these companies have opened regional headquarters in Hong Kong; they organise meetings and incentives for their colleagues going to China.

As global economies improve, it will benefit various sectors. Motivation tours are getting popular for small companies and we are handling a lot of these small group tours, averaging 30 to 40 persons. The aim is to reward and retain employees.

Longhaul business will rebound. Europe will get stronger because many banking deals are made there. Overseas markets will also get stronger because businessmen source and sell there; this indirectly affects inbound travel. One problem is airlines maintain high-yield practices which do not offer sufficient capacity and frequency on some routes. There are not enough seats.

Australia and New Zealand may be better off in terms of corporate travel because of quality of service. Australia's electronic visa requirement and New Zealand's visa-free policy for SAR (Special Administrative Region) passports means easy access. Most importantly, Aussie accommodation is affordable.

Once again, the US is tedious and stringent security measures continue to be a setback.

-Associated Tours vice-president, Mr Ken Chang,
For 2005, I'm optimistic.

First of all, there are a few big events booked for Hong Kong, such as the huge Lions Club International Convention in June 2005 and the World Trade Organization ministerial meeting in December next year. It's good news both corporate and leisure. Customers from longhaul markets in North America and Europe are again showing interest in Hong Kong. The recovery from these markets is really taking off, moving with steady and healthy momentum.

There is no doubt the Chinese market will continue to be the biggest. It's still growing. What worries agents is the tight hotel room supply. This will push room rates up. Of course, we expect rates to rise, but we're hoping they do not soar so high as to scare away business.

Inflation and the rosy real estate market will also push up office rental costs. All agents will face this problem when their leases expire; landlords will want to raise rents after years of stagnant income.

MALAYSIA
-Excellence Holidays Malaysia managing director, Mr Ronald Chan
Although economic indications for 2005 are very good, there is not enough cashflow in the market. As such, the business situation looks very soft. I foresee corporations cutting their budget for travel and if they could, they would use low-cost carriers (LCCs). The cost of regional travel is expected to come down with LCCs such as AirAsia planning to fly to China and India next.

China will be one of the main markets for us next year given the aggressive regional routing by AirAsia and Malaysia Airlines. The high euro will affect travel to the Europe next year. Coupled with rising fuel costs, longhaul travel will be impacted.

Although corporations will continue to travel to conduct their business, they are likely to choose a lower category hotel and an LCC. Corporate travel will be dependent on where these corporations are doing business in.

China is seen as an important market for many companies.

-Holiday Tours & Travel general manager, Mr Danny Jee
Being associated with a global travel company such as Carlson Wagonlit Travel since December 2003, we get lots of updates on "forward- moving" countries. China is seen as one of the up-and-coming markets for 2005 as a number of MNCs have, or are relocating their regional offices or headquarters there.

As a travel supplier, I see strong growth in China looking at the number of airlines that are expanding their network there. With the market in China opening up, more travellers are going to cities such as Beijing and Shanghai.

Another strong market for both leisure and business will be Australia, which is noted for its friendly people. It is also the closest country for Malaysians to visit besides being affordable to middle-class income earners. Don't forget the huge numbers of Malaysians who graduate from Australia and return for visits.

On the other hand, we do not see much travel to high security or risky areas as the MNCs will be receiving travel advisories to postpone their travel to these places.

THE PHILIPPINES
-Action Holidays Philippines president, Mr Paul So
Corporate travel next year will be good but still not as robust as it once was.

Business travellers are cutting back on class of travel and on the kind of tickets they buy. Corporations also seek more credit but there is no credit to be given. Airlines are also going direct to corporate clients. Many companies are therefore thinking of setting up their own travel agencies or having an in-house travel department so they can canvass for cheaper tickets and hotel accommodation. Banks are now getting into the travel business and will soon become travel outlets themselves.

The manufacturing and banking sectors will remain quite strong markets for corporate travel. Trading companies, on the other hand, will weaken because many executives in this sector postpone their travel plans in favour of sourcing materials online. Telecommunication advances have made business easier for a lot of trading companies. They no longer need to travel as frequently as before.

-Universal Holidays Philippines vice-president, Ms Annette Feliciano
The outlook for corporate travel next year is quite good. We already have several forward bookings.

The manufacturing sector is quite strong for corporate travel. They usually send their staff overseas for training and this is year-round. Such travel is not dependent on any external factors because training is always needed.

Last year, we saw companies downgrade travel in terms of destinations. Those sending groups on incentives to Europe downgraded to regional destinations, while groups that would have gone to regional destinations opted for domestic incentives. But this year, we operated several incentives to Europe. So, barring any untoward incidents, we expect 2005 to be a strong year for corporate travel.

SINGAPORE
-Carlson Wagonlit Travel general manager, Ms Olivia Chye
After the SARS episode in 2003, corporate travel has been growing tremendously. Corporations are aggressively looking to TMCs to manage their travel. They look for TMCs who are able to provide high technology, good management reporting and quality service delivery. Also, the SME market, which is concentrated in Asia, is growing and this is healthy for the corporate travel market. Even SMEs are seeking for TMCs' consultative role in travel management. Corporations have begun to understand and recognise the values of a TMC. The next step is for travel managers to upsell the value to all levels of management.

Also in 2004, corporations are constantly seeking high and creative technology enhancements as well as quality service and it is very important that we are always proactive in anticipating our clients' needs to stay abreast of competition.

In terms of operation, the recent pro-family work environment recommendations (by the government) have an impact on our already tight labour market.

The labour market for frontline reservations staff is very tight due to the specific skills set requirements. To overcome this challenge, we have always been investing very heavily in employee training.

-Global Travel and Scenic Travel managing director, Mr Peter Choo
With the economy looking good in 2005, I think corporate travel will remain strong with growth in nearly all route areas. Some of the increase will come from companies that have set up or are expanding their regional or global HQ in Singapore.

Also, most people would expect growth on the China and India routes with expectations of better business opportunities as well as increased air capacity and frequency.

Global Travel hopes to see a 10 per cent increase in sales for corporate travel in 2005. This will come from increased business activities from our present clients and better market share.

The major challenge that will be faced is the high fuel prices that will result in higher fares or fuel surcharges. High fuel prices in turn will lead to higher ground transport and accommodation costs. Eventually trips will be more costly, but it is unlikely to deter business travel.

The greatest threat to corporate and all travel is if travellers' health or security is at risk. Let us hope we do not see any major health or security threat in 2005.

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