Terror attacks, the latest being the July 7 bombings in London, have become a reality in today’s world and therefore no longer a shock.

The acceptance of that reality has led to corporate travel managers factoring in safety and security planning in their travel policy and to this end, there has been no shortage of tools to help them manage information and assess risk.

Technology helps to disseminate accurate information and indepth analyses of a situation faster than one can dare hope before. This certainly prevents any knee-jerk reaction, helping managers to be proactive rather than reactive.

Reliable, up-to-date and quick information is needed by different planners for different purposes.

Take the aftermath of the London bombings, for instance, and one source of information, The Bench, which monitors London hotel performance.

Between July 11 and 14, daily operating data from 28,000 hotel rooms in London collected by The Bench showed weeknight (Monday-Thursday) occupancy slipped by around five to six per cent compared with the same period last year. The decline was more pronounced for weekend occupancy levels, when most visitors are staying for leisure rather than business, at around 10 per cent to 12 per cent below last year’s levels, and bigger still when compared with the period before the attacks.

Corporate hotels in London looking at this information may conclude that the corporate travel market is more resilient than the leisure travel market, hence, there is no need to discount at all in that segment. Perhaps for the leisure market there may be the need to come up with tactical promotions to help stimulate the market.

Corporate travel managers looking at this information, likewise, can determine the confidence level of corporations for allowing their executives to travel to the city, and the impact of the bombings on room rates. They also have other sources of information and forecasts to help the planning in the medium- to longer-term. Frequent crises have forced immediacy out of everyone, including associations serving the global travel community.

Days after the London attacks, the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC), for instance, issued its forecasts. It said the UK could expect to see a 1.9 per cent year-on-year decrease in visitor numbers to 30.9 million as a result of the attacks. The WTTC also forecasted UK outbound would be affected, with both leisure and business travel declining by 2.3 per cent to £102 billion (US$178 billion) and £22.7 billion respectively.

It said early indications showed the impact on the UK’s travel and tourism industry from the London bombing was limited.

Travel and tourism companies had recovered their stock value within 24 hours of the attacks, reflecting the confidence in the industry, it said.

WTTC conclusions

It concluded the following:

• The intensity of the event’s impact on international arrivals, residents’ travel and tourism consumption confidence and business travel confidence should be minor.
• The duration of the event’s impact on international arrivals, residents’ travel and tourism consumption confidence and business travel confidence should be limited.
• The geographical reach of the event should be limited to the UK.
• The damage to the travel and tourism infrastructure was none.
• The UK government spending response to the event should, and would, be strong.

In addition, the WTTC Crisis Event Forecasting Model developed by Oxford Economic Forecasting suggested that in 2005:

• UK visitor arrivals might decline 1.9 per cent from previously forecast level of 30,947,368.
• Personal travel and tourism by UK residents might decline 2.3 per cent from previously forecast level of £102 billion.
• Business travel and tourism by UK companies might decline 2.3 per cent from previously forecast level of £22.7 billion.
• Government travel and tourism expenditures might increase by 6.3 per cent over previous forecast level of £12.6 billion. It said it was not unusual for government spending levels to increase during a period of crisis as a result of increased activity, security and ultimately a renewal of marketing and promotion activities to re-engage visitors.
• Visitor exports might dip 1.9 per cent from previously forecast level of £34.9 billion.
• Travel and tourism industry GDP might decrease two per cent from previously forecast level of £46.8 billion.
• Travel and tourism economy GDP might decrease 1.5 per cent from previously forecast level of £122.5 billion.
• The industry’s employment might shrink by 0.49 per cent.

WTTC president, Mr Jean-Claude Baumgarten, said: “It is expected that the impact of the London bombing, much like that realised by the Madrid and Bali bombings, will continue into 2006 but will have completely dissipated by 2007.

“Of course this assumes that UK authorities undertake at least similarly strong measures of reassurance and encouragement to regain and rebuild visitor confidence and that no further events take place in the meantime.” Travel managers, of course, still need to judge the forecasts for themselves, taking into account that associations such as the WTTC, PATA and the World Tourism Organization do have a role to play in confidence-building of the industry when crises hit.

The point is they know where to go for the information and how to use it to the best advantage. That, is a key aspect of preparedness in today’s T&E planning.

Raini Hamdi
Editor